Monetary policy has always been one of the most important and influential topics in the economy. Have you ever wondered how central bank decisions can affect our daily lives? In this article, we will examine the impact of monetary policies on the forex market to see how a change in an interest rate can affect your profitability in currency trading. Ready to discover the secrets behind monetary policy?
What is monetary policy?
Monetary policies are a set of measures and decisions taken by the country’s central bank to control the money supply and manage the inflation rate. Using tools such as setting interest rates, changing bank reserves, open market operations, etc., the central bank tries to maintain economic stability and prevent extreme fluctuations in the economy. Monetary policy has two types of expansion and contraction, which are used depending on economic conditions. The ultimate goal of monetary policies is to achieve sustainable economic growth and control inflation.
The successful implementation of monetary policies requires the central bank to have a detailed understanding of the economic conditions and its timely response to changes. Also, there must be a necessary coordination between the monetary policy and the financial policy of the government in order to achieve the desired goals. Inappropriate monetary policies can have many negative effects on the economy. For this reason, the central bank should adopt appropriate monetary policies in line with economic stability, considering all aspects.
Monetary policies have a significant impact on the lives of ordinary people. Controlling inflation and stabilizing the value of the national currency through appropriate monetary policy increases people’s purchasing power. Also, expansionary monetary policies and facilitating loans can help people buy housing and cars; Therefore, citizens should also be aware of monetary policies so that they can make their financial decisions appropriately.
Application of monetary and financial policies
Monetary and financial policies are important tools for regulating economic activities and achieving goals such as economic growth, full employment and price stability. Monetary policy affects aggregate demand and the general price level by regulating the money supply and interest rates. Fiscal policy also affects aggregate demand by changing the amount of taxes and government spending. For example, during an economic recession, expansionary monetary policies and expansionary fiscal policies are used to increase demand and get out of recession.
One of the most important applications of monetary and financial policy is the stabilization of business cycles. Business cycles include periods of economic prosperity and recession. Monetary and financial policies can reduce the intensity of cyclical fluctuations.
Another important application of monetary and financial policies is financing for government construction projects and programs. Governments often need financial resources to fund construction projects such as building roads, ports, airports, etc., which are provided through expansionary monetary policies and contractionary fiscal policies. Of course, the necessary balance between these policies must be maintained so that instability and inflation do not occur; Therefore, monetary and financial policy play an important role in the development of economic infrastructure.
Types of monetary policies
Expansionary, contractionary and accommodative monetary policies are tools in the hands of central banks to regulate the economic cycle and prevent extreme fluctuations. Although these policies seem simple, their correct application requires expertise, experience and a deep understanding of economic conditions. In the following, we will give a brief explanation about each policy so that you can get a relative familiarity with them.
Expansionary monetary policy
Expansionary monetary policies are usually employed when the economy is in recession and there is very little cash in circulation. In this situation, the central bank is trying to increase liquidity and stimulate production by reducing bank interest rates and increasing loans and facilities. A decrease in interest rates makes people less willing to keep capital in the bank and liquidity increases. Also, increasing loans and facilities will stimulate economic activities and boost the economic cycle.
Contractionary monetary policy
Contractionary monetary policies are used in situations where inflation is increasing and the amount of money in circulation is high. In this case, the central bank tries to limit liquidity and control inflation by increasing the interest rate. An increase in the interest rate makes people more willing to save in the bank and the demand for buying goods and services decreases. Also, the cost of obtaining loans and facilities will increase.
Adaptive monetary policies
Accommodative monetary policies are used when the economy is on the verge of recession or over-prosperity. The purpose of these policies is to maintain balance and prevent extreme fluctuations in the economy. According to the conditions, the central bank may reduce or increase the interest rate slightly to prevent the economy from entering a recession or a boom. The ultimate goal is to maintain stability and continue sustainable economic growth.
Monetary and fiscal policy tools
Monetary policy tools include the set of actions and methods that the central bank has to control the money supply and interest rates. The most important tool of monetary policies is the interest rate, which the central bank can influence by increasing or decreasing the interest rate, the amount of money in circulation and inflation. In addition, the rate of legal reserves or legal deposit is another important tool of monetary policy that the central bank can change to affect the lending power of commercial banks and thus the amount of money in circulation. Also, the open market operation or buying and selling of debt securities by the central bank is another effective tool for implementing monetary policies.
Fiscal policy instruments include the set of actions and methods that governments use to influence the economy through their revenues and expenditures. The most important financial policy tools are taxes, which the government can influence the amount of demand and consumption in the economy by increasing or decreasing the income tax rate of individuals and companies. Also, government spending is one of the important tools of financial policy, as the government can influence the level of economic activities by increasing or decreasing its expenses. In addition, through transfer payments and subsidies, governments can influence people’s disposable income and thus consumption and demand in the economy.
Monetary and financial policy makers try to achieve macroeconomic goals such as sustainable economic growth, price stability, full employment and fair distribution of income by using simultaneous and coordinated monetary and financial policy tools. Of course, sometimes there is a conflict between these two policies, so that expansionary monetary policies may lead to budget deficits and create the need for contractionary fiscal policies; Therefore, coordination and cooperation between the central bank and the government is essential for the optimal regulation of monetary and financial policies.
Monetary policy implementation tools
In this section, the concepts related to monetary policy implementation tools such as interest rate, legal reserve policy and open market operations and their role in regulating liquidity have been explained.
Interest rate
Interest rate refers to the rate that a person or organization pays or receives for using borrowed capital or a bank deposit. This interest rate is usually determined as a percentage of the loan or deposit amount and is considered a reward or a fee for using capital.
Several factors, including the level of inflation, economic needs, supply and demand of loans and investments, government monetary policy and bank policies affect the interest rate. This rate can be variable and change over time.
By changing the bank interest rate, the central bank can affect the interest rate of deposits and facilities of commercial banks. A decrease in the bank interest rate leads to an increase in the demand for loans and an increase in liquidity. On the contrary, an increase in the bank interest rate reduces the demand for loans and reduces liquidity.
Legal reserves policy
The policy of legal reserves is one of the important concepts in the field of taxation and government financial policies. Statutory reserves are money or assets that governments collect and keep to use in times of need and special needs. These reserves usually allow the government to react quickly and effectively and are used to solve financial and economic problems in times of crisis.
The main purpose of creating legal reserves is to facilitate the management of taxes and financial and monetary policies of the government. These reserves allow the government to use them when revenues decrease, such as during periods of economic recession, to compensate for the decrease in revenues and to provide public services optimally.
In addition, the policy of legal reserves from the total monetary policy can be used as an important strategy for financial risk management. In the presence of strong and appropriate legal reserves, the government is able to take appropriate measures and manage the crisis in the face of financial crises, such as economic recession, market fluctuations, or the occurrence of unexpected events such as hurricanes or earthquakes.
The central bank can keep a certain percentage of bank deposits as a legal reserve in order to influence the amount of liquidity. An increase in the legal reserve rate reduces the lending capacity of banks and reduces liquidity.
Open market operations
The main purpose of open market operations is to exploit the opportunities available in the capital market and to make a profit. In the open market, companies, professional investors and financial institutions actively participate in the process of buying and selling securities and other financial instruments. This operation can be done in the form of day trading, long-term investment, derivative transactions and other financial activities.
Open market operations are very important and play a key role in determining prices and rates in the capital market. Economic, political and global factors can affect the prices and rates in the market and this operation is done as a reaction to these effects. In addition, open market operations allow companies and investors to maximize their profits by making trades and investments in changing market conditions.
The central bank can influence the liquidity through the purchase and sale of government securities and other securities. Buying bonds means injecting money into the market and selling them means collecting money from the market.
How does monetary policy affect the forex market?
Central banks influence the value of currencies in the forex market by setting interest rates and open market operations. An increase in the interest rate by the central bank strengthens the value of the national currency against other currencies; Because with the increase of interest rate, that currency becomes more attractive for investors. On the other hand, the reduction of interest rate leads to the weakening of the value of money. Also, central banks can influence the amount of liquidity and therefore the value of their currency through the purchase and sale of securities in open market operations. Therefore, forex traders carefully follow the changes in interest rates and the operations of central banks so that they can benefit from the resulting fluctuations.
Another influencing factor of monetary policies on the forex market is the foreign exchange interventions of central banks. Central banks can affect the value of their currency by buying and selling currency in global markets. For example, if the central bank wants to reduce the value of its national currency, it buys foreign currencies, which weakens the national currency. Forex traders must be careful of the currency interventions of central banks so that they can trade in the right direction. In addition, the inflationary monetary policy can also lead to the weakening of the value of the currency.
In addition to interest rates and foreign exchange interventions, the monetary policies of central banks can also affect the forex market by influencing economic indicators. For example, monetary expansion and interest rate reductions can help economic growth, which in turn strengthens the value of the currency. On the other hand, contractionary monetary policies and interest rate increases may lead to economic stagnation and weaken the value of money; Therefore, forex traders should also consider the economic effects of monetary policies.
What is the real impact of monetary policy on forex traders?
Monetary policy can have a significant impact on forex traders. Monetary policies include the decisions and actions taken by the central bank or the organization related to money and currency of a country to control and manage money and currency. The impact of monetary policies on forex traders can occur directly and indirectly. Following are some important effects of monetary policy on forex traders:
Exchange rate change
One of the most important effects of monetary policy on forex traders is the change in exchange rates. The increase of interest rates by central banks can lead to the strengthening of the value of the national currency and increase its price against other currencies. This allows forex traders to profit from these changes in exchange rates. Also, a decrease in interest rates usually leads to a weakening of the national currency, which provides profitable opportunities for traders.
Demand and supply
Monetary policies can affect supply and demand in the currency market. Actions such as changes in interest rates, monetary adjustments and control of financial resources can change the demand and supply of currency. These changes can lead to price and exchange rate changes and thus have an impact on the profit and loss of forex traders.
Risk and sustainability
Monetary policy changes can affect risk and stability in the currency market. Changes in interest rates and financial policies can lead to changes and fluctuations in the currency market that expose forex traders to more risks and fluctuations in their transactions.
Change in volatility
Another important effect of monetary policies is the change in the volatility of the forex market. Expansionary monetary policies usually lead to increased market volatility; Because it leads to the injection of liquidity into the market and increases the volume of transactions. On the other hand, contractionary monetary policy reduces volatility by reducing liquidity. Forex traders should pay special attention to these changes in volatility so that they can adopt a suitable trading strategy.
last word
In general, monetary policies play a significant role in determining the direction of financial markets. In this article, we saw how expansionary and contractionary monetary policies affect currency supply and demand through interest rate changes and open market operations. We also saw how this monetary policy can create opportunities or challenges for forex traders; Therefore, awareness of monetary policies and their impact on the forex market can help traders to adopt more successful strategies in their transactions.
